As the holiday season takes over and the snow begins to fall, Ottawa’s real estate market is showing its usual November slowdown—but not without some encouraging signs of steady recovery. While sales dipped slightly compared to October, year-to-date numbers tell a more optimistic story of growth and resilience. Let’s take a closer look at the trends shaping the market this month.

Sales Snapshot: A Seasonal Pause

In November, 1,059 homes were sold through the MLS® System, down slightly from 1,179 in October. It’s not surprising—November typically sees fewer transactions as buyers and sellers focus on the holidays and winter weather begins to obscure curb appeal.

Compared to historical trends, sales were 3.1% below the five-year average and 0.5% below the 10-year average, reflecting a market that’s steady but not yet fully rebounded from the slowdown of 2023.

On the brighter side, year-to-date sales have reached 12,882 units, an 11.8% increase over the same period last year. This suggests that while November is quieter, the broader market is gaining momentum.

The market is moving along from the slowdown in 2023. We’ve observed that buyers are been slow to come back to the market while watching the interest rates lower, and some are waiting to see how new mortgage rules coming into effect in December may redefine their purchasing power.

Prices on the Rise—But Not Everywhere

When it comes to prices, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) paints a nuanced picture. The composite benchmark price for all home types was $636,700, a 1.5% increase compared to November 2023.

Here’s how different property types are faring:

• Single-family homes remain in demand, with a benchmark price of $722,400, up 2.1% year-over-year.
• Townhouses/row units saw modest growth, with a benchmark price of $491,500, a slight 0.3% increase.
• Apartments, however, continued to struggle, with a benchmark price of $406,200, down 3.7% from last year.

The average price of homes sold in November reached $667,098, marking a 4.6% year-over-year increase, while the year-to-date average price rose to $679,797, up 1.2% from 2023.

While these numbers provide a helpful snapshot, OREB cautions that averages don’t reflect individual neighbourhoods. For example, a charming single-family home in Kanata may see a completely different price trajectory than a modern condo downtown.

Inventory: A Balancing Act

The inventory picture offers a mix of opportunities and challenges for buyers and sellers alike.

New residential listings in November totalled 1,352, a 7.3% decrease from last year and 6.3% below the five-year average. This drop in fresh options means buyers may have fewer new choices on the market.

On the flip side, active listings—homes already on the market—jumped to 4,036 units, a 38.2% increase year-over-year and a striking 72.8% above the five-year average. For buyers, this surge means there’s more to explore, especially in the resale market.

The months of inventory metric, which measures how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current pace, sat at 3.8 months, slightly down from 4.0 months in November 2023. This figure indicates a market that’s balanced, though leaning toward buyers in certain segments.

Shifting Dynamics and Buyer Caution

The market’s current state reflects a delicate balance between cautious buyers and patient sellers.

Buyers are closely watching mortgage rate trends and waiting to see how new rules, such as extended amortization periods and an increased default insurance cap, will impact their budgets. These changes, set to take effect in December, could redefine purchasing power for many.

Sellers, meanwhile, are keeping one eye on the calendar. “Sellers have noticed that caution, and those who can are likely holding on for a more active spring,” says Fillier. Still, open houses are seeing steady traffic, and well-priced properties continue to attract interest.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers, the increased inventory provides more opportunities, especially if you’re looking for a single-family home or townhouse. However, with fewer new listings coming online, acting quickly on a property that fits your needs is essential. If you’ve been considering a condo, the current dip in apartment prices might be the perfect chance to score a great deal.

For sellers, patience is key. While the winter months tend to be quieter, serious buyers are still out there—especially for homes that are well-maintained and priced competitively. Highlighting indoor features and ensuring curb appeal is top-notch (even under the snow) can make all the difference.

Looking Ahead

As 2024 wraps up, Ottawa’s real estate market continues its recovery, with year-to-date sales and prices offering a positive outlook. However, the upcoming months will likely hinge on the impact of new mortgage rules and any further interest rate changes.

For those navigating the market, staying informed and working with a knowledgeable REALTOR® is the best way to seize opportunities and make confident decisions. Whether you’re planning to move now or waiting for spring, the path to your next chapter is within reach!